Cotton Is Climbing Again as the New Season Opens, a Week Before the Duty Waiver Ends

What was reported

The Hindu reported from Coimbatore on 22 October 2026 that cotton prices had risen sharply over the previous ten days, barely 22 days into the 2026-27 cotton marketing season, and that more than 1,500 textile mills in Tamil Nadu were worried about rising input costs. The secretary of the Indian Cotton Federation told the paper that cotton arrivals were not as expected. The rest of the report sits behind a paywall, so we have used only these points.

Earlier October reporting put the cause in the same place: lower yields after deficient rainfall, and spinning mills short of stock buying actively into thin arrivals. The rise reported on 22 October works out at roughly six percent in ten days, measured against price levels reported around 12 October. That is our rough arithmetic on trade reporting, not an official series, so read it as an order of magnitude.

World cotton has moved the same way. ICE cotton futures rose for three straight sessions to 22 October on a weaker dollar and firmer crude, so imported cotton offers no cushion.

Why this reverses the late September picture

At the end of September we wrote that cotton had come off its multi-year high and that the September input-cost spike had unwound. That was true at the time. A new season normally brings more cotton to market and softer prices. This one has opened the other way, so the easing should no longer be assumed.

Cotton yarn has not caught up. Trade reports through 22 October still describe north Indian cotton yarn as weak, with mills short of cash and buyers cautious. When the fiber rises and the yarn does not, spinners lose margin, and that gap usually closes with yarn rising rather than cotton falling. Expect cotton yarn offers to firm before cotton-rich fabric quotes do.

The 31 October date

The government removed basic customs duty and the agriculture cess on imported raw cotton from 1 June to 31 October 2026. Nothing has been notified past that date. Industry bodies asked in late September for a six-month extension, and we have found no decision on it.

If the waiver lapses on schedule, imported cotton becomes dearer from 1 November at exactly the moment domestic arrivals are short. That would add to the pressure rather than relieve it. An extension would take some of the edge off, but in September domestic prices were already following world futures rather than the duty, which we explained in our September cotton post. Treat an extension as upside, not as the plan.

What it means for a fabric quote

• Cotton-rich and 100 percent cotton shirting: the most exposed. A quote with a long validity written in early October was written on cheaper fiber. Expect shorter validity and a re-quote on repeat orders.
• Poly-cotton: exposed in proportion to the cotton share. A 65/35 polyester-cotton blend carries roughly a third of the cotton movement, and polyester is a separate, crude-linked cost that is also rising this week.
• Poly-viscose suiting and shirting: no cotton in the blend, so this news does not reach it directly. Its costs follow polyester, viscose, dyeing and freight. Crude and container freight both rose this week, which we cover in our input-cost post, so a poly-viscose quote is not cheaper either.
• If you are deciding between a cotton-rich and a poly-viscose specification for uniforms, our comparison of poly-viscose and cotton for uniforms sets out the trade-offs beyond price.

What we will watch

Whether the duty waiver is extended or lapses on 31 October, whether arrivals pick up into November as the harvest moves through, and whether cotton yarn offers firm to close the gap. We will update this post when the waiver decision is known.